Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
Run thousands of retirement simulations to understand the probability of your retirement plan succeeding under variou...
What Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator does
The Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator generates thousands of market scenarios to estimate the probability that retirement savings will last through age 95. Users input their current age, planned retirement age, life expectancy, current savings, annual contributions, first-year retirement spending, fees, and other income sources. The output shows success odds based on how long the portfolio endures across simulated market conditions. The tool distinguishes itself by offering two distinct market modelling approaches — independent normal draws or a bootstrap over the real 1928-2025 market record — and allows users to specify how spending adjusts when markets decline. All results are presented in nominal terms before inflation and taxes, with clear defaults for fees and income handling.
How to use the Financial Toolset Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
- 1
Enter your current age and planned retirement age to set the simulation timeframe.
- 2
Input your current retirement savings and annual contributions made before retirement.
- 3
Set your first-year retirement spending amount and choose how it adjusts for inflation each year.
- 4
Select your preferred market modelling method — independent normal draws or a bootstrap over the real 1928-2025 record — and set any annual fees.
- 5
Review the success probability output showing whether your savings last through your selected life expectancy.
Best for
This option suits individuals who want to stress-test their retirement plan against historical market volatility and understand how different spending strategies affect long-term portfolio survival.
Limitations
- Results are nominal figures before inflation and taxes are applied
- No unit switching between currencies is supported
- Outcomes depend on the user's input assumptions and selected market model
Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator FAQ
- How many market scenarios does the simulator run?
- The tool runs up to 10,000 simulated market scenarios to estimate the probability that retirement savings will last through the selected age range.
- Can I model different market conditions or historical patterns?
- Yes, you can choose between independent normal draws for random market variation or a bootstrap method that uses actual market returns from the 1928-2025 record to reflect historical patterns.
- What do the success odds actually represent?
- Success odds show the percentage of simulated market scenarios where your portfolio lasts through your selected life expectancy, based on your savings, spending rate, fees, and other income sources.
- Are the results adjusted for inflation and taxes?
- No, all figures are nominal and presented before inflation is stripped out and before tax effects are applied.